A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
